Off-Season Roster Analysis: Special Teams and Summary

In part 6 of 6 we'll look at the Blue Bombers special teams heading into the 2014 season and summarize what we've looked at for the entire roster.

Special Teams depth chart as of today (March 15, 2014):

K- HAJRULLAHU 
P- RENAUD
KR- Woods, Ford, Washington, Denmark
PR- Woods, Washington, Denmark, FEOLI-GUDINO

Kickers

The kicking situation is a major concern.  

Mike Renaud survived a challenge by Brett Cameron, Billy Pavlopoulous and Australian Tim Hutchison in 2013's training camp. To this point, the Bombers have not brought in any competition for Renaud at the punter position.

Lirim Hajrullahu is a CFL rookie fresh out of CIS....undrafted at that. Hajrullahu was first-team OUA at both punter and kicker, and second-team All-Canadian as kicker.  

Hajrullahu's kickoff average in 2013 was 61.6 yards and he made 85% of his field goals with two makes over 40 yards.  The kickoff average suggests that Hajrullahu has the raw leg needed to play in the CFL, he needs to prove that he can put the ball on the numbers and between the uprights in the CFL.  For comparison, the Blue Bombers averaged 55 yards per kickoff with Palardy and Deangelis in 2013.  Of course, it may have just been that windy....

The first-team All-Canadian placekicker in 2013 was Johnny Mark out of Calgary, who is eligible for the upcoming 2014 CFL Draft, and was second-team All-Canadian as a placekicker the in 11 and 12 as well. Mark averaged 53 yards on kickoffs and hit 88% of his field goals, five of them more than 40 yards.

Mike Renaud finished just above the CFL league average in both gross and net punting in 2013, which is about where the expectation for him should be.  He's developed into a steady punter who can put the ball where he wants, this is something he struggled with at times in the past (and something we are going to track this season, punt and kickoff placement).  Renaud is not a placekicker...at all.  Watching him attempt converts in a 2010 game when Louis Sakoda was a last minute scratch following the release of Alex Serna was painful. 

It is inconceivable that the Bombers will enter training camp without competition at kicker.  The question is who will the competition be.  Is a guy like Johnny Mark a target for the Blue Bombers in the draft, and will he last until the 3rd round (Bombers pick 2nd and then 20th) in a shallow draft class?  Are the Bombers willing to go with a rookie fresh out of CIS as the placekicker?  Will the Bombers bring in an import who can potentially compete for both the placekicking and punting jobs?

Kick Returners

In terms of kick returning, the Bombers have a good amount of players who can do the jobs on the roster heading into 2014.  Will Ford was All-CFL as a kickoff returner.  Aaron Woods provided ball security, a consistent 20 yards on kickoffs, 10 on punts and was seemingly one shoestring tackle away from busting a lot of big runs on punts and missed field goals.  Demond Washington is a threat each time he hangs onto the ball and Clarence Denmark is a safe and reliable guy who will catch the kickoff or punt.  Washington and Denmark are likely to be key players on defense and offence in 2014, so it is unlikely they will return kicks in all but extreme circumstances.  Ford can't catch punts, so he'll be limited to kickoff returning.

The big question in terms of kick returners will be the health of Aaron Woods.  The foot injury that Woods suffered tends to be one that does not heal easily and can reoccur or affect speed and agility moving forward.  Another question would be whether Woods sees an expanded role for the Blue Bombers in 2014.  Offensive Coordinator Marcel Bellefeuille is the guy who made Corey Holmes and Marcus Thigpen focal points of his offence.  Will he do the same in Winnipeg?  

I expect that the Blue Bombers will add 1 or 2 more guys to compete for a spot primarily as a returner.

Kick Cover

Taking a look at the coverage units, the Bombers lose their top 3 special teams tacklers from 2013 (Green, H Muamba, Stewart) and a key veteran in Pierre-Luc Labbe.  The Bombers cover units in 2013 were pretty good.  They allowed one punt return touchdown and sported good averages with opposing teams averaging 8.2 yards per punt return and 19.3 per kickoff return.   Good benchmarks for returns are 8 yards for a punt and 20 for a kickoff.  Anything under that is very good for a cover unit.

Solid bets to take on a bigger special teams roles in 2014 are Teague Sherman and Phillippe Dubuisson-Lebon. 

Full Depth Chart

Players under contract as of March 15, 2014:

62 (27 non-imports, 35 imports)

13 open roster spots (75 max in off-season, 68 plus non-counters can be brought to training camp)

You'll notice that the Bombers are short one non-import starter based on this depth chart.  I believe they will decide in training camp how the 7th NI spot on the field will be deployed.  There are a few possibilities (in no particular order):

-Neufeld starts at RT.

-A 3rd NI Receiver/tight end spot taken by Feoli-Gudino or Brescacin, or rotated between a couple receivers.

-A 2nd NI spot on defence split between Thomas, Lucas, Newman at WIL/DB, Bucknor at DB.

In my opinion the 2nd NI on defense is most likely at this point.

QB- Willy, Hall, Brohm, Marve

RB- Ford, VOLNY

FB/TE- PONTBRIAND, FITZGERALD

WR boundary- Moore, Sims, Urrutia

SB- WATSON, FEOLI-GUDINO

SB- KOHLERT, BRESCACIN

SB- Denmark

WR field- Kelly, Robinson, RENAUD

LT- January

LG- GREAVES, PALIWODA

C- KOWALCZUK

RG- MORLEY, PENCER, SWISTON

RT- Jones, NEUFELD, Knapp

DE- Vega

DT- Turner, THOMAS

DT- Anderson, LUCAS

DE- McAdoo, Griggs, Peach, Gatling

SAM- Banks, Dunn

MLB- Parker, Hogue

WIL- Wild, Tate, NEWMAN

Weak CB- Randle, Sears

Weak HB- Washington

S- ALEXANDER, MUAMBA

Strong HB- Suber

Strong CB- Markett, BUCKNOR

Rookies- Loper, Leggett

K- HAJRULLAHU

P- RENAUD

KR- Woods, Ford, Washington, Denmark

PR- Woods, Washington, Denmark, FEOLI-GUDINO

Special Teamers- STEPHAN, SHERMAN, WEST, DUBUSSION-LEBON

 

Mid-February Roster Analysis: Winnipeg Blue Bombers Quarterbacks

This post kicks off a 9 part series that will be known as the Mid-February Roster Analysis.  We'll start with our home team, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  This one is going to be detailed, so we will look at it in 6 parts (QB, RB/REC, OL, DL, LB/DB, Special Teams) plus an overall assessment of the Bombers roster.

Players under Contract (as of February 17, 2014):

60 (24 non-imports, 36 imports)
15 open roster spots (75 max in off-season, 68 plus non-counters can be brought to training camp).

2014 Draft Picks:

Round          Overall
1                   2
3                   20
3                   26
4                   29
6                   47
6                   48
7                   56

Quarterbacks:

The New Guy in Town-

Drew Willy 27 years old 6'3 215

Vital numbers: 101-147 68.7% completion, 9 TD 5 INT for a 99.1 QB rating in 2 seasons as #2 QB for the Roughriders.  4 rushing touchdowns as short yardage QB.

The Incumbents-

Max Hall 28 years old 6'1 200

Vital numbers: 162-283 57.2% completion, 9 TD 10 INT for a 75.1 QB rating as a CFL rookie, on again off again starting QB for the Blue Bombers.

Justin Goltz 26 years old 6'5 215

Vital numbers: 88-160 55% completion, 3 TD 7 INT for a 61 QB rating in 4 seasons with the Blue Bombers.  9 rushing touchdowns as short yardage QB.

Analysis:

The Blue Bombers have 3 quarterbacks under contract for the 2014 season currently.  The stats very simply indicate where each of these QB's are, and give us enough of a sample to definitively rank them.  

Drew Willy is (arguably, he does have more seasons in the league than Hall) the least experienced CFL quarterback on the Blue Bomber roster, yet he is clearly the best. Willy has shown an ability to make all throws necessary for a CFL QB.  The one area where his game needs to improve is in making pre-snap reads and good quick throws from the pocket, he does have a tendency to hold the ball and statue in the pocket as many inexperienced QB's do.  Willy has shown a strong ability to make throws on the move and move the chains with his legs in his limited CFL career, and compares favourably to Mike Reilly (2013's free agent prize).  Is he ready to take the reins as a CFL starting QB?   

Max Hall had some good games, he had some disastrous games as a CFL rookie.  Most QB's don't hit the field as rookies in the CFL.  Willy and Hall both did, Willy more successfully.  Hall showed a good ability to read a defense after the snap and find the open man.  He didn't show a great ability to get the ball to that open man.  Hall's weak arm, lack of a quick release and tendency to throw at static targets will limit his ability to be an effective starting quarterback.  With more experience, I believe he could top out at a 60% passer with a rating in the 85 range.  Average, but not a bad option as a backup QB.  Is Hall willing to stick around in Canada as a backup beyond 2014 or will he retire to pursue his coaching career at BYU?   

Justin Goltz has been with the Bombers since the last 2 weeks of 2010 when the Bombers had to scramble across North America to fill their QB roster with Pierce, Jyles and Brink all injured.  His stats say it all.  Goltz is not a good passer to put it mildly.  His arm strength is average, his release is slow by CFL standards.  He is a great running QB, and an effective short-yardage specialist.  At this point it seems highly unlikely that he will develop into much more, but as a backup QB, having a guy who can threaten defenses with his legs and maybe make a few throws is not terrible.  Given the outright, passive aggressive hatred the former coaching staff, including the current offensive co-ordinator, developed for Goltz in the 2013 (see Jason Boltus as short-yardage QB), it is somewhat surprising that he is still on the Blue Bombers roster.  Will he make it to training camp?  

Hall and Goltz (not an 80's rock R&B fusion duo) did have to deal with the Crowton offence that was not suited to the CFL game and ultimately the implementation of a more traditional attack by Marcel Bellefeuille mid-season. 2013 did not provide the ideal circumstances for either developing a CFL QB or evaluating one in Winnipeg.   

There has been much discussion and gnashing of teeth when it comes to the Blue Bombers quarterbacking. First, the Zach Collaros sweepstakes.  He goes to Hamilton, Bombers lose out.  Then, due to Collaros joining the Tabbies, the Henry Burris sweepstakes are on, Bombers lose out, the REDBLACKS hand Hank a million dollar contract and alienate Kevin Glenn in the process.  

The last guy available...Drew Willy.  The Bombers make the move to acquire his rights, get him signed before he hits the free agent market and the puns ensue.  

Is it safe to assume that the Bombers landed their 3rd choice of the high profile QB's with at least some CFL experience this off-season?

I don't believe so.  I believe that the Bombers were involved in the earlier sweepstakes because their ideal goal was to acquire at least 2 experienced CFL quarterbacks this off-season, and not just any experienced CFL quarterbacks, ones that have had at least some success in the league.  In that scenario, Willy was always in play for the Blue Bombers, whether or not they acquired Collaros or Burris.

As of today, Willy is the clear starter for the Blue Bombers.  This was announced emphatically by head coach Mike O'Shea at the press conference introducing Willy to Winnipeg.  

However, there is still a lot of work to be done by Kyle Walters on the Bombers QB front.  Kevin Glenn is on the trading block.  Are the Bombers interested?  Acquiring Glenn would fulfill the goal of adding 2 CFL QB's with experience.  It would also create an instant quarterback controversy in Winnipeg and return Glenn to a city that has already tired of his painfully hopeful, yet mediocre quarterbacking once before following the 2008 seasons.

I believe that the Bombers will start the 2014 season with Willy starting, Hall as his insurance and a couple fresh prospects at 3rd and 4th string (practice roster/4 man reserve).