Thoughts on CFL Week 1

The 2014 CFL season kicked off in an exciting fashion for Blue Bomber fans.  On the whole though, a real sloppy week of CFL football to kick things off.

• Was there a quarterbacking performance better than Drew Willy's (19-27 308 yards 4 TD) in week 1?  With all due respect to Mike Renaud,  no one else was even close in week 1.  We know what to expect from Ricky Ray and Darian Durant over 18 games, but if week 1 in any indication, Drew Willy is primed to join the ranks of CFL elite at the quarterback position very quickly.  The most impressive part of Willy's game was his composure under pressure, moving the ball out quickly and decisively to his targets.  His moderate happiness with both his own and team performance bodes well.  The guy isn't satisfied, content nor surprised with his play.  That is a very good sign.

• Kevin Glenn threw 4 INT's, but it is too early for BC to panic. Those turnovers were the difference in the 27-20 BC loss.  On the whole, BC played well, Edmonton played average but did not turn the ball over.  The result of this game does not change my view of either team.  BC will be battling for a home playoff game, Edmonton will be fighting to stay out of the league basement.

• The quality of offensive line play in the Edmonton-BC game was truly horrendous.  Amazingly, Edmonton's offensive line is actually getting better, but Mike Reilly does not help his offensive line by taking his time in reading the defense, and it looks as though he is making most of his decisions after the snap.  They say he won't be running as much, but it sure does not look that way.  Reilly's running remains key to the Eskimos offensive production.

• Why would you sign a quarterback who has only had success by improvising, using misdirection and moving the pocket and stick him in the pocket on straight drops?  That's the question I'd be asking Kent Austin if I owned the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Zach Collaros does not have the arm to run the kind of offence Hamilton showed in Regina.  They need to be a little more creative.

• That said, the Roughriders defense did a masterful job of not allowing Collaros to escape the pocket by crashing their ends wide and rushing in waves, leading to 10 sacks.

• Troy Smith, no accuracy, literally no accuracy.  It is not a compliment when people start comparing your upside to Michael Bishop (career 51% completion, 66 TD's to 76 INT's, 71 QB rating).  If I were Ryan Dinwiddie, I'd only run a zone read play between Smith and Whitaker, and four verticals.  Let Smith bomb it down the field 25 times a game at Duron Carter and SJ Green, if you hit 5 of them you'll have more offence than you did in week 1.  Montreal looks to be in big trouble this season with poor communication between the front office and a coach who was hired by the owner over the wishes of the general manager.  This season has disaster written all over it for the Alouettes, and the play on the field in week 1 did nothing to change that course.

• Bo Levi Mitchell was inconsistent in his first start as a #1, but he settled down and ended up with 313 yards and 2 TD's. Calgary's offence looks to be a little more reliant on the big play with BLM at QB than it has been in recent years, something to watch going forward.

• Kyries Hebert's flying jab (video) on Jon Cornish was about the only exciting moment of the Montreal-Calgary game, for the wrong reasons.  It is hard to get suspended in pro football, fines usually being the highest form of discipline, but Hebert deserves a suspension.  Swinging your forearm/fist at another player's jaw is not a football play, not even a vicious football play which Hebert is renowned for, it's just a straight up assault.

Our players of the week:

Offense- Drew Willy WPG

Defense- Ricky Foley SASK

Canadian- Ricky Foley SASK

Special Teams- Branden Smith TOR

Some notes specific to the Bombers 45-21 win over the Argos:

• The Blue Bomber defense had a great night.  Ricky Ray was off balance.  Much like Anthony Calvillo in his recently concluded career, Ray relies heavily on reading the defense pre-snap, basically knowing where he's throwing the ball before he even touches it.  The Bomber D gave the Argos so many different looks both before and after the snap that Ray could not assume anything.  They also pressured him a dozen times pre-garbage time.

• Some interesting things the Bomber D did include:
• Showing up to 8 players on the line of scrimmage and rushing any number between 2 and all 8 of them.  The Bombers rushed 2 once, and 8 once each.  The vast majority of their blitzes were 5 or 6, with the odd 7 man blitz tossed in.
• Another factor was who was rushing the quarterback and from where.  There was a lot of variety.  All the DL save for Jake Thomas lined up in each gap on the line at various times.  Ejiro Kuale played about 6 different positions and was a big factor in the pass rush.  Louie Richardson played both inside and outside.  Pretty much everyone who set foot on the field defensively rushed the QB at some point other than the corners.
• When Ricky Ray changed the play, the Bombers D changed their look entirely.  Linebackers traded places, DL shifted into different gaps, Bryant Turner dropped into a LB spot.  All sorts of things happened, and that ability for Ray to know what the defense was going to do was completely taken away.  Toronto counteracted this a little with swing passes to Owens and Durie.  At that point it comes down to tackling and rallying to the ball, which the Bombers did well for the most part.

• In terms of blitzing (pass rushing more than 4 players), the Bombers blitzed on approximately 30% of Argo passing downs, the Argos blitzed on approximately 20% of Bomber passing downs.

• Those blitzing numbers are relatively high for a Tim Burke defense.  After the Bombers first drive, the Argos were pretty consistent blitzers.  When they did blitz, it was almost always one or both of Jamie Robinson (SAM/HB) or Shea Emry (MAC) coming as the extra guys.  Burke keeps it simple for his players.

• Drew Willy handled the blitz quite easily, as did the Bombers offensive line.  The key for the offensive line is to protect their inside gaps and only allow the extra guys to come off the edge if they can't be accounted for.  They did that perfectly.  With the inside gaps sealed up, the QB has to react calmly, move the ball out quickly and decisively, which Willy did, rendering the Argo blitz mostly ineffective.  The 48 yard pass to Watson in the 2nd quarter is a perfect illustration of Willy vs the blitz.

• Nic Grigsby struggled with picking up the blitz from the tailback position, mostly reading where he needed to be to pick it up and getting there.  When he locked onto a block he finished his blocks.  Grigsby's day running the ball was consistent.  He does not get any yards after contact, but he can make people miss in the open field and hit some big runs.  He could have hit a huge run by breaking one arm tackle on a perfectly set draw play.  Nice game, but I'd still slot him behind Paris Cotton.

• Chris Randle, Demond Washington and Maurice Leggett were standouts in the secondary.  Randle is a shutdown corner, the Argos got nothing on him, and when Ray finally hit Chiles who got a step inside Randle, Randle ripped the ball out of his grasp before he could complete the catch.  Leggett has taken well to the safety spot in this system.  He made a couple huge pass breakups in the endzone, and a huge hit on Jason Barnes that will make the middle of the field a less desirable place.  One play that showed just how calm and collected Leggett is at safety was one of the swing passes to Owens.  Leggett initially took a poor angle, but rather than simply going as fast as he could and whiffing, he adjusted and made the tackle.  Gave up a couple more yards than if he took the best angle initially, but didn't let Owens bust a big play by trying to overcompensate.  Incredibly smart play for a guy playing safety in his first Canadian Football game.

• Teague Sherman has a regular role on defense, and he shined.  Extremely disruptive as a blitzer, and becoming a strip specialist.  His ability to play significant snaps on defense will help Jake Thomas stay fresh and allow the Bombers to roll out 4 import DL or have Wild and Kuale on the field at the same time.

• The Bomber offence is simple in design.  For the most part they ran 3x2 or 2x3 (3 receivers on one side, 2 on the other) formations with Grigsby either set in the gap between guard and tackle or in an I-formation behind Willy in the pistol.  There was the odd formation with a bunch, usually with tight end, a fair amount of double tight end sets and empty backfields with Grigsby motioning out pre-snap too.

• The offensive line as a whole had a good night.  As I said earlier, there were few major breakdowns and they looked like they had played together for a long time, not a crew with a first-time centre and new right side.  Compared to the line play in week 1 across the league, the Bombers were well above average.  It is a lot easier playing OL for a QB like Drew Willy than QB's like Hall and Goltz.  In particular, Dan Knapp and Chris Greaves stood out in run blocking.  The Bombers ran a lot of designed plays with Knapp pulling from right to left, leading Grigsby.  Greaves did a very good job of sealing his gap to open inside lanes for Grigsby the handful of times the run game ventured between the tackles.  Most of Grigsby's yards were on runs off tackle.

• On the whole, the Blue Bombers impressed me as a calm, cool and collected group.  It is easy to see where that is coming from because that is the demeanor of their head coach.  The attitude isn't "why did you do that" (Woods letting the ball bounce into the endzone, then taking it out :() or "why did we let that happen" it is "what happened, how can we do it better next time and let's get it right next time."  There were a few points in the game where it kind of felt like the inevitable Argo comeback was coming, but the Bombers made a big play, a stop or drove the field to respond each time the Argos poked their head out and smacked them back down into the ground. Bring on the REDBLACKS!

Thoughts Between Pre-Season Games

"Great" schedule the Bombers ended up with this pre-season.  A week leading up to the first pre-season game, on a Monday, then 4 days leading into the second pre-season game on the following Saturday. Then 2 weeks to prepare for the season opener on June 26.

Here are some thoughts following a careful review of the pre-season opener against the Argonauts, heading into the pre-season finale in Calgary this Saturday.

Quarterbacks:

The top 2 QB's in Monday's game by a mile played for the Argonauts. Trevor Harris and Mitchell Gale both looked very comfortable and ready to play if the Argos need them.  Perhaps an unfair comparison for Bomber QB's, all of whom are joining a new coaching staff/regime, and all joining a new organization except for Max Hall.

Drew Willy looked poised in the pocket, made good decisions and stepped up or got out of the pocket when he needed to, no hesitation. Most importantly, he kept his eyes downfield and his receivers active when he was on the move.  Willy also showed a willingness to keep the ball on the zone read and turn the corner for a first down, important to keep the defense off-balance, allowing Paris Cotton the chance to run at hesitant defenders.

The biggest negative for Willy was his accuracy.  On some throws, that could be the result of miscommunication with receivers which should improve heading into the regular season with a regular crew of receivers, and some of it is likely on Willy.  To take a positive out of the negative, he kept the ball out of the defenders hands as well as his teammates hands.

Max Hall had a rough night.  Still has the happy feet in the pocket, which takes velocity off his throws and challenges his accuracy.  Ran a couple bad zone reads where he needed to read the end coming hard inside and keep the ball, rollout and pass or run around the edge, instead he sent his tailback on a suicide mission, and the Bombers lost ground.

Hall was 3 of 7, one drop by a receiver, one completion that was badly underthrown and snagged off the turf by Brett Carter.  The other incompletions were an overthrow into double coverage (aka a good overthrow!), an underthrow/miscommunication with Carter on a route he didn't break off, and an underthrown deep ball.

Brian Brohm also had a rough night.  Probably has the strongest pure arm of the Bomber QB's, Brohm and Marve would be close, but poor pocket presence and zero willingness to move around or out of the pocket other than on designed rollouts.  Brohm also had a bad zone read where he should have kept the ball.  

Brohm made one great throw which showed why he's been so highly touted since he was a high schooler, a bullet through a tight window on 2nd and 10 that would have been a first down if not for a Jaymar Johnson drop.  Otherwise, Brohm was a combination of inaccurate and wild, you can't expect a football receiver to catch a 90 mph fastball like the one he fired at Aaron Kelly on a slant on the Bombers final possession of the 3rd quarter.

Robert Marve led a great touchdown drive to close the game for the Blue Bomber offense.  It was a 6 play drive, 5 designed pass plays, 1 run play.  Marve scrambled on two occasions, once getting out of bounds with a yard, and once scrambling for a first down on second and 16, including the head first dive for the sticks.  

The star of the drive was Marve's arm.  He started with a bomb that hit Donavon Kemp in stride.  Each Bomber QB tossed the same seam route at least once, Marve was the only QB who hit his receiver in stride.  Marve's second throw was a perfect dart into a window bordered by the sideline and a defender to Jaymar Johnson just beyond the first down marker on 2nd and long.  Two perfect throws, perfect.  His final throw was a perfect back shoulder toss to Kemp for a 7 yard touchdown following the 2nd and long scramble.  Unfortunately, Marve and Aaron Woods couldn't connect on a 2 point conversion to tie, Marve was blitzed and underthrew a corner route.

The Bombers quarterback situation is this:

Drew Willy- starter
Max Hall, Brian Brohm- battle for #2 spot
Robert Marve- Developmental #3, short-yardage guy

Is it worth keeping the loser of the backup battle, likely Brohm, around? Probably not.  Brohm is already 28.  He's not getting a whole lot better. He's already spent a full season in the league and several years as a pro.  Better to get a look at and potentially carry and develop a QB with upside, rather than one who has peaked.

Offensive Line-

On the whole, the offensive line play on both sides was fairly respectable.  Quarterbacks had a lot of time for the most part.  Clearly both teams were not doing much in terms intricate blitzing or twisting and pretty much rushing straight ahead, making the game very simple for the offensive lines.

On the Bombers side, four guys particularly stood out as struggling.  
Among the starters, Jarvis Jones had a rough time at right tackle.  He was consistently beat off the snap around the edge by Thaddeus Gibson (who looks like he could be a player for the Argos).  A couple times, Willy was forced to throw early, leading to an inaccurate toss, and a couple teams he stepped up and out of the pocket and was able to find a receiver.

Quentin Saulsberry and Tyson Pencer were both bullied by guys who likely won't make the Argos.  Pencer in particular looked very slow getting out of his stance.  Not sure where Jesse Peterson played in college, but I'm guessing he wasn't a tackle. 

On a positive note, I really liked Dan Knapp at right guard.  He did a lot of good work with Steve Morley in zone run blocking, and got up to the second level.  Say what you will about Morley, but it's been a long time since we've had a centre who could actually block as well as him, like back to 2006 Obby Khan.  Snaps were good too.  Outside of the first team OL, run blocking was poor, especially on the inside.

Matthias Goossen looked ok at both centre and guard.  He was driven into the pocket a few times at guard, but to his credit he stayed on his block and gave the QB a chance.

Is Knapp an option at right guard?  How many imports will the Bombers be playing on the line?  They started 3 on Monday, but unless they get extremely creative with the ratio, it is hard to see a scenario where more than 2 imports play on the offensive line.  Based on what we saw on Monday, I think our best offensive line right now would be:

LT- January
LG- Greaves
C- Morley
RG- Knapp
RT- Neufeld

6th- Goossen or Kowalczuk, Jarvis Jones or Cordaro Howard on reserve.

It will be interesting to see how teams use their 2 new roster spots, might be a 7th OL in one of them.

Receiver-

Jaymar Johnson...a lot of good, a lot of bad, a lot of opportunity. Jaymar Johnson is clearly a guy that the coaching staff wanted a long look at.  He did enough to warrant further consideration, a nice sideline grab for a first down and a nice back shoulder touchdown grab called back for another receiver offside, but also had two flat-out drops, and a stumble out of bounds 2 yards short that killed a drive.

Mario Urrutia looks like a mix of Greg Carr and Chris Matthews.  Tall and thick, made a couple nice grabs in traffic, we didn't get to see him on a deep route.  Looks like he has the boundary WR all but spot locked up to start the season.

CJ Tarver made one real nice catch over the middle for a first down, but had one terrible drop and could not adjust on a couple deep balls to make a good effort on them.  Also let a punt hit the turf and didn't look too dangerous when he finally decided to pick it up.  I'm surprised he made it to the second pre-season game.

Julian Feoli-Gudino looked like a player.  Solid blocking when he was called in by his QB to do so, and made a nice grab for a TD releasing off a block.  May have to play a lot more than expected depending on the health of Watson and Kohlert, and I'm excited to see what he can do.

Donavon Kemp didn't get a lot of opportunity, but just produced on the Marve drive, catching the long bomb and the touchdown.  I expect to see him get some more action on Saturday to show if he's the real deal.

Aaron Woods looked ok in a vanilla offence.  I expect we'll see him in a more defined and individualized role when the season starts, he's got a skill set that Bellefeuille has maximized before with Corey Holmes and Marcus Thigpen.  Showed great hands on the first down catch he made, but he's not a guy you want on corner routes like the 2 pt convert attempt.  

Clarence Denmark, damn he looks like he's coming in still hot from 2013.  Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up leading this team in receiving.

Nobody did anything good or bad to change the depth chart at receiver in my opinion.  The starting 5 are still Urrutia, Moore, Denmark, Watson and Kohlert.

Running Backs-

Paris Cotton was great.  Good vision, comfortable running behind zone blocking, found the gaps, make a quick cut and got upfield.  Ran with power and through contact.  This performance should put him at the top of the depth chart, and he'll have a chance to solidify a roster spot in Calgary.

Nic Grigsby was the opposite of Cotton.  Couldn't find the gaps, looked very uncomfortable and cut into traffic several times, didn't survive contact either, and Grigsby saw more action with the first team offensive line.  One big run where he went right around the edge, otherwise a lot of 0-1-2 yard gains.

Will Ford better get back in the lineup for Saturday if he wants to hold off Paris Cotton's challenge for his starting RB spot. 


Defense-

On the whole, the defense did not look good.  The "rally to the ball" philosophy was not evident.  Pass coverage was very good, but the Bombers should have two concerns coming out of the first pre-season game.  First, the amount of yards after catch (YAC) given up.  The Argos ran the same playaction pass to the opposite flat a dozen times, and yet they turned it into first downs more often than not.  Second, the amount of yards the Argos piled up on inside runs was obscene. Sometimes they burst right through the line, other times they ran around it because the inside was sealed, but where was the rally to the ball?  A tailback shouldn't be able to run for 10-15-20 yards completely untouched, and certainly not multiple times in a game.

There were some individual standouts:

So far a name we've heard a lot in the media is Don Unamba.  I wasn't all that impressed with his game, he had a lot of tackles, but only one close to the line of scrimmage, he was getting beat for a lot of YAC.  He is all hustle, just not sure that he's very good.

Maurice Leggett looked very solid on both special teams and defense, all over the field and fast.  He didn't make the official stat sheet, but I have him in on at least 3 special teams tackles, being the first contact twice.

Marty Markett was huge on D, to the point if I'm in charge of the Blue Bombers that I need to find a way to get this guy on the field.  Forced a fumble, nearly had a pick 6 among his 3 passes defended, and didn't let any YAC happen when he wasn't able to breakup the pass.

Bruce Johnson was tested a couple times, and passed with flying colours.  Would have had an INT if not for a teammate deflecting the ball away from him.

Matt Pierce lined up at linebacker and got home on a few blitzes, as did Graig Newman.  If that is a key attribute Etcheverry is looking for, those guys showed it.

Teague Sherman forced a huge fumble at the goal-line.  He should have the team made on special teams, huge bonus if he can take some snaps on D.

In terms of incumbent CFL stars, Demond Washington and Chris Randle were solid.  Randle was not challenged at all, a sign of respect. The Argos spent the first quarter successfully picking on Alex Suber. Ian Wild had a great game, and I think he'll be a very good player at MAC in this defense.  Wild made a slew of excellent open field tackles, a couple of them preventing huge runs.

On the defensive line, Zach Anderson and Jake Thomas performed well on the interior.  Both got licks in on Gale and Pachall, Thomas grabbed a tackle for a loss too.  Greg Peach had a flurry of sacks, but on the whole the pass rush was pretty tame.

Special Teams-

In terms of returns, nobody distinguished themselves.  A lot of punts hit the turf, which will drive the coaches nuts.  Even on Cotton's big punt return, he let it roll on the carpet for a couple seconds then scooped it and took off.  The returner gig is Aaron Woods' to lose, and nobody is giving him a big challenge yet.

In terms of kicking, wow, what a battle.  Brett Maher received a huge opportunity to prove himself, and he did quite well.  He outkicked his coverage once on a punt, and didn't place his punts all that well, usually hitting them closer to the hashmarks than the numbers.  But his leg is huge, as his 67 yard kickoff average shows.  Lirim Hajrullahu showed very well too.  Big leg, also a 67 yard kickoff average.  His punts were placed a little better, but he appears to be more of a placekicker. Neither kicker missed a FG, and both hit kicks of 40+ yards.

As of right now, I'd favour Maher to do all 3, and stash Hajrullahu for development.  He's got a future.

A few non-QB Argo standouts:

#11 Natey Adjei, another very good Argo NI receiver.

#6 Thaddeus Gibson, rush end, dominated a pretty good OT in Jarvis Jones.

#83 Terrell Sinkfield, receiver/returner, if the Argos cut him, wouldn't mind a look in Winnipeg

#1 Anthony Coombs, cool to see him in a CFL uniform, but I think he got a first-hand taste of how his running style needs to change, he isn't going to open up any gaps going east-west, just lose ground.

2014 CFL Mock Draft

We'll make each pick through 4 rounds and briefly summarize our rationale behind our picks in rounds 1 and 2.

Round 1-

1. Ottawa REDBLACKS - Pierre Lavertu OL Laval

There wasn't much discussion on this one.  Ottawa needs someone who can start right away.  Marwan Hage retired.  Alex Krausnick-Groh is a borderline CFLer, best suited to long-snapping and spot duty. Lavertu will start at centre for Ottawa immediately.  He's the best player in the draft who likely won't be signing with the NFL in 2014.

2. Winnipeg Blue Bombers- Quinn Smith DL Concordia

Quinn Smith is the hot prospect of the moment.  He is very athletic for an interior DL, and dominated the OL prospects in this draft at the combine, then flipped to the offensive side and did very well.  Would the Bombers view Smith as a future OL or keep him on the defensive side?  

This is a tough pick.  The Bombers really need interior OL, and really need a centre.  Much like the 2012 draft where they picked 3rd and BC swooped in for the 2nd pick, the Bombers are one spot behind where they need to be to pick the player they want and need, now victimized by being the worst team in an expansion year rather than a draft day trade.  

Kyle Walters has been adamant on adding OL to the pipeline in this draft and specifically with this pick.  Is this whole OL thing a bluff if Lavertu is off the board for the Bombers?  The Bombers don't pick again until 20th overall, so if they want a good OL prospect above all else, they will likely need to take one with their first pick.

3. Edmonton Eskimos- David Foucault OL Montreal

The Eskimos OL is the shallowest in the league, and they are lacking high-end guys too.  Simply put, it is a mess.  Hard to see the Eskimos not taking the best OL available at 3rd overall.  They do not pick again until 21st overall.  

4. Montreal Alouettes- Jesse Briggs LB McGill

A bit of an off the board pick, but Jim Popp is not one to hold to the form chart.  Remember Matt Singer?

Briggs has the athletic potential to be one of the most impactful players in this draft class, and Montreal values athletic ability above all else at the draft table.  He should be able to join the Als roster immediately as a special teams player, backup to Marc-O Brouillette and eventual replacement for MOB.  Evan Gill, Devon Bailey, Andrew Lue, Anthony Coombs and Kris Bastien are possibilities here too.

5. BC Lions- Evan Gill DL Manitoba

The Lions have no pressing needs.  Devon Bailey and Anthony Coombs are possible here with BC's NI playmakers likely coming to the end of their prime years.  Gill is much more of a sure thing though.  The Lions will likely want Gill to drop a few of the NFL pounds and regain a little extra quickness.  Don't be surprised if Gill decides to finish his CIS career and review his options with the CFL and NFL heading into the 2015 season, although Gill has a lot to gain by landing at an ideal playing weight and having a couple good CFL seasons to show the NFL, he might be better off at NFL end size (285-290).

6. Toronto Argonauts- Devon Bailey Receiver St. FX

Toronto is in a really good spot to take a high risk, high reward type gamble with this pick.  They could use a linebacker as depth behind Shea Emry, and there are some good options.  Could use a depth DL too.  They should still have good options at 15th overall to add a defender.  The Argos NI playmakers are aging, and Bailey or Coombs seem to be an obvious pick here.  We'll go with Bailey as a slightly safer pick.

7. Calgary Stampeders- Andrew Lue DB/LB Queen's

Calgary has a need for NI depth on the defensive side of the ball.  Lue is the best player available here.

8. Saskatchewan Roughriders- Dylan Ainsworth DL Western 

Ainsworth is a guy who might be able to develop into a good situational pass rusher, at worst he'll bring athleticism to special teams. 

9. Hamilton Tiger-Cats- Matthias Goossen OL Simon Fraser

OL pipeline pick, who might play sooner than later in Hamilton. Anthony Coombs is a possibility here too, but we didn't think Kent Austin would make that kind of outside the box move to consider a NI tailback.

Round 2-

10. Ottawa REDBLACKS- Anthony Coombs RB Manitoba

Probably not the best situation for Coombs to start with, but he should get a chance to play as a running back and/or receiver in Ottawa. Ottawa needs a NI playmaker somewhere, Kris Bastien is a potential pick here too.

11. Hamilton Tiger-Cats- Kris Bastien Receiver Concordia 

Bastien is in the running for best player left at this 11th in this mock, and Hamilton really needs some NI receiver depth behind Fantuz and Giguere.

12. BC Lions-  Beau Landry LB Western

Given who is left on the board, it seems very likely that BC would pick a defensive player here.  Landry is the best available.  OL is a possibility here too.

13. Montreal Alouettes- David Menard DL Montreal 

Menard should be able to platoon with Mike Klassen on the Als DL, potentially even in 2014.  That would help cushion the loss of Shea Emry to the Argos.  

14. BC Lions- Kyle Paterson OL Regina

The 2nd tier of OL in this draft begins with Paterson.  Paterson is raw, but athletic and needs to add a little bulk.  Terry Hart and Jas Dhillon are OL possibilities here too.  All are interior OL.

15. Toronto Argonauts- Jas Dhillon OL UBC 

OL pipeline pick.

16. Calgary Stampeders- Antoine Pruneau DB Montreal 

More depth for Calgary's defense and special teams, Casey Chin, Michael Dadzie, Raye Hartmann and Derek Jones are other potential selections here. 

17. Hamilton Tiger-Cats- Terry Hart OL St. FX

Make more room in the pipeline!

18. Saskatchewan Roughriders-  Casey Chin LB Simon Fraser

Chin should go much higher, but there will be a run on OL in the first couple rounds in a draft light on OL prospects.  Should help replace Newman and Butler on special teams immediately, should develop into a guy who can play a role on defense if not more.

Round 3-

19. Calgary Stampeders- Laurent Duvernay-Tardif OL McGill
20. Winnipeg Blue Bombers- Michael Dadzie DL Regina 

21. Edmonton Eskimos- Derek Jones DB Simon Fraser

22. Montreal Alouettes- Johnny Mark K Calgary 

23. Ottawa REDBLACKS- Adam Thibault DB Laval

24. Calgary Stampeders- Evan Pszczonak Receiver Windsor 

25. Calgary Stampeders- Max Caron LB Concordia 

26. Winnipeg Blue Bombers- Thomas Miles LB Manitoba

27. BC Lions- Raye Hartmann DB St FX 

Round 4-

28. Ottawa REDBLACKS- Tyler Crapigna K McMaster
29. Winnipeg Blue Bombers- Scott MacDonell REC Queens
30. Edmonton Eskimos- Guillaume Bourassa RB Laval
31. Montreal Alouettes-Quinn Everett OL Mount Allison
32. BC Lions- Tore Corrado REC Simon Fraser 
33. Toronto Argonauts- Eric Black DB Saint Mary's
34. Calgary Stampeders- Alexander Fox REC Bishop's
35. Montreal Alouettes- Travis Bent LB Concordia
36. Toronto Argonauts- Nigel Romick DL Saint Mary's

2014 CFL Draft: Blue Bombers Outlook

Ahh...that time of year is here again.  Flowers are blooming, allergies are crippling, the geese are returning and football drafts are on the horizon.  In reality, my yard is still under 6 feet of snow and the city just piled 3 feet of ice boulders in front of my garage, but the drafts are still coming!

This post will commence our 2014 CFL Draft coverage.  It will look at players the Blue Bombers should potentially target.  I've enlisted two friends of mine who follow the game closely within Canada to participate in a 3 man live 4 round mock draft where each "GM" will draft for 3 teams.  The results of that will be posted on this blog.

It is important to point out my bias when it comes to the CFL Draft.  I am firmly in the camp of taking the best player available with early picks. By that I mean, the best football player on the day of the draft.  In the CFL, you can't pick guys based on what they might be in 3-4 seasons. Careers don't last that long, contracts don't last that long.    

Jade Etienne is a prime example of why drafting on potential in the early rounds is a bad idea in the CFL.  Jade Etienne may still develop into a productive CFL receiver, he might even hit 1000 yards in a season or two in his CFL career.  That won't be with the Blue Bombers though.  When selecting a non-OL early, draft a player who can make your roster, contribute and develop along the way while he is a member of your team.  Cory Watson is a good example of this type of player. He saw limited action in his rookie season (2010) as a receiver, but contributed on special teams and developed into starting role and 793 receiving yards in his second season (2011).  Henoc Muamba is another example, make the team as a rookie, contribute and develop into an impact player.

Luckily, drafting for positional need shouldn't be too big of an issue for the Bombers in the 2014 CFL Draft.  They need non-import players at every position on the field.  Here is an overview of the current non-imports on the Blue Bombers roster with number of anticipated starters in parenthesis:

Tailback (0) - Volny

Fullback/Tight End (0) - Pontbriand, Fitzgerald

Receiver (2) - Watson, Kohlert, Feoli-Gudino, Brescacin, Renaud

Offensive Line (3) - Greaves, Morley, Swiston, Pencer, Kowalczuk, Neufeld, Paliwoda


Defensive Line (1*) - Lucas, Thomas

Linebacker (1*) - Stephan, Dubuisson-Lebon

Defensive Back (2*) - Alexander, Newman, Muamba, Bucknor, Sherman, West 

*2nd starting spot on defense is likely to be a rotation between one spot on the DL, at LB/secondary.

Kicker- Hajurllahu
Punter- Renaud

The Bombers currently have 27 NI's under contract with 2013 draftees Kris Robertson (DB) and Stephen Alli (receiver) potentially signing before training camp making that number 29.  In the CFL, you need to dress 20 non-imports, so the Bombers are pretty thin generally, with 7 of the 27 NI's under contract being OL (4 likely to dress). 

Bomber 2014 Draft Picks (as of April 5, 2014)

Round   Overall
1             2
3             20
3             26
4             29
6             47
7             56

The Bombers currently have 6 picks in the 2014 draft.  The first pick is likely to be a OL, who may start (please please!), or may need some development time.  In terms of roster management in 2014, that first pick will be an immediate upgrade to one of the 6 OL spots on gameday, or a guy who sits on IR to develop.

Where do the Bombers need NI depth?  Let's break it down, in order of immediate need.

1.  Offensive line

This one has been beaten to death.  Depth isn't so much what the Bombers need, as much as they need another high end NI to join Chris Greaves.  Morley is coming to the end of his career, Swiston is in danger of topping out at average, Neufeld is coming off a serious injury and playing a position that is likely going to an import, Kowalczuk is a marginal CFL player, Pencer is still a very raw prospect, and who is Paliwoda?  Nobody seems to know.  

The Bombers have depth, they need good CFL players at OL. Specifically, they need a starting centre.  Kyle Walters has all but guaranteed that the 2nd overall pick will be used on an offensive lineman.  Pierre Lavertu (Laval), a centre, looks to be the likely pick, and only Ottawa can throw a wrench into that plan.  If Ottawa selects Lavertu, I expect the Blue Bombers to select Matthias Goossen (Simon Fraser).  David Foucault (Montreal) might have a higher ceiling (one of those guys bound to leave once he becomes useful), but Goossen is ready to play and he can play all of the inside positions well, including centre.

All of the top OL prospects will be gone by pick 20, I wouldn't be shocked if 8 OL are picked by the time the Bombers pick for a 2nd time.

2. Receiver

Our NI's at the skill positions on offence aren't that bad.  Volny won't be confused with Cornish, but he can play a role backing up at tailback, he can block, he can catch, he can run, he can fumble sometimes. Pontbriand is a very good blocking fullback.  Fitzgerald is a prospect. Probably a better fit as an extra receiver/tight end than the fullback/tight end he was envisioned as by Joe Mack, but another guy who should be able to fill a role.

Watson and Kohlert are two pretty solid NI receivers, they will start. Behind them....nothing really.  Feoli-Gudino was a star at Laval, but has barely played in the CFL as a receiver.  Currently, he's a pulled hamstring away from being a CFL starter.  Brescacin was the top CIS receiver in 2012.  Taylor Renaud finished a solid CIS career 21st in receiving yards in 2013.

Watson and Kohlert both missed games in 2013, so if we're planning on starting 2 NI receivers, you can be sure that we'll have at least 3 or 4 NI's playing significant snaps at that position in 2014.  In terms of the upcoming season, the Bombers might end up mining the cuts of other CFL teams for NI receiving depth.   

The 2014 draft class has one great receiving prospect in Devon Bailey (St FX), one good prospect in Kris Bastien (Concordia) and a bunch of guys who are going to need some development time after them.  Arguably the best receiving prospect in this draft is Anthony Coombs (Manitoba), but that will depend on who drafts him and if he makes it as a tailback.  Bailey, Coombs and Bastien are likely to be gone before the Bombers pick again at 20th overall.

Some options for the Bombers in the 3rd and potentially 4th rounds at receiver:

Evan Pszczonak Windsor 6' 180 - Among the top receivers in all the measurables, top vertical among all combine attendees, 42 catches for 646 yards 6 TD's in 7 games in 2013.  Next closest Windsor receiver had 235 yards in 8 games, so he put up those numbers as the only consistent target in the offence.  Looking at his 2013 highlight pack, it's a lot of running by inferior athletes on wheel routes, which doesn't give the best indication of whether the guy has the route running skills to be a receiver in the CFL. Video

Alex Pierzchalski Toronto 6'5 220 - Tested low in terms of speed and agility, average in the jumps, not tremendously productive in CIS (51 for 537 9 TD's in 2013) in a strong passing offence at Varsity.  Big target who tracks the ball well and shows an ability to win some contested deep balls in his 2013 highlight pack.  He doesn't get off his feet and get it at it's highest point, and he tends to catch the ball with his hands down (bad habit!) on short and intermediate routes coming into the field, absorbing the ball into his body rather than attacking it with his hands up, that's a recipe for drops.   Video

Alexander Fox Bishop's 5'8 185- See Pszczonak's description above. Very similar but smaller and less athletic.  Over 1000 yards for Bishop's in 2013 in a not so great QSSF, mostly running by slower DB's. Video

Tore Corrado Simon Fraser 6' 175- Tremendous athlete who is climbing from the regional combine through the main combine.  Shows more varied route running (and kick returning) in his 2013 highlight pack than Pszczonak and Fox, but tends to absorb the passes with his body rather than catching them with his hands, again recipe for drops. Also would have to learn the waggle much like an import after playing BC high school and NCAA D2.  Video

Scott Macdonell Queens 6'5 230- Tested very well at the combine for his size rising through the regional combine to the main combine.  #2 target at Queen's behind Johnny Aprile, 31 catches for 449 4 TD's. Traditional Canadian football slot, big body make the grab and get upfield type, likely to play some tight end in the CFL.  Reminds me a lot of Aaron Hargreaves, whether or not he gets a better shot than Hargreaves to play anything but field WR we'll have to see.   Lazy hands on some passes when he is wide-open, habit he'll have to break to get on a CFL field.  Lots of special teams highlights in his pack too.  Video

Francis Lapointe Sherbrooke 5'11 180- See Pszczonak again.  30 grabs for 291 and 2 TD's in 2013. Video

Macdonell and Pszczonak are just a nose ahead of the rest of this group in my opinion.  Macdonell for the tight end and special teams potential, Pszczonak for pure athleticism combined with production, but they are all very close and all of these guys will get picked between the 3rd and 6th rounds.

Late round special:

Kit Hillis Saskatchewan 5'9 175- Sneaky, sneaky receiver who just gets open and makes plays.  46 catches for 537 and surprisingly only 1 TD.  Doesn't test very well, especially for his size.  Great football player, impactful on special teams too, lined up anywhere and everywhere for the Huskies, comes from a program with a good history of producing CFL receivers. video

3. Defense

Any spot on defense is a need for the Bombers in terms of NI's.  In the 2014 off-season the Bombers lost their top 2 NI defenders.  Henoc Muamba signed with the Indianapolis Colts and Pierre-Luc Labbe retired.  The Bombers have added Donovan Alexander, Matt Bucknor and Graig Newman this off-season to compete for the starting safety spot, and potentially take some snaps at other spots in the secondary.    

As it looks right now, the Bombers will start a NI at safety and need to fill a 2nd NI spot on defense.  It is unlikely that one player will take the bulk of these snaps.  It will likely be a mix of having 1 NI DL/LB/6th DB present on every defensive snap.  This could be difficult to manage and will take some co-ordination among positional coaches when they build defensive packages.  

We are extremely thin at NI LB.  Rene Stephan hasn't been able to stay healthy and on the roster.  Dubisson-Lebon was very good on special teams, but doesn't look like a prospect to play defense, something he didn't even do much of at the CIS level.

We are also very thin at NI DL.  Jake Thomas and Ryan Lucas are serviceable CFL gap holders, but neither one is going to be impactful or play more than 20-25 snaps a game.

I believe it is likely that the Blue Bombers will pick through the bargain bin of cuts from other teams at NI LB and DL, but they will also look to pick up some prospects at the draft.  One injury in either spot, and we have no one, if we aren't in that position all ready at LB.

Defensive players I expect to be picked before the Bombers get back on the conference call: 

Evan Gill DL Manitoba, Quinn Smith DL Concordia, Dylan Ainsworth DL Western, David Menard DL Montreal, Jesse Briggs LB McGill, Beau Landry LB Western, Casey Chin LB Simon Fraser, Andrew Lue DB Queen's, Antoine Pruneau DB Montreal

Let's look at some of the defensive prospects who the Bombers might have a shot at in the 3rd and 4th rounds:

Raye Hartmann St. FX 6'2 190 - Flying up the draft boards with strong regional and main combines.  Hasn't played since 2011.  Big strong DB, more of a corner or half type, will kill on special teams regardless. Video

Max Caron Concordia 6'2 210- Top defensive player in all of CIS in 2011, Caron was once a sure first-round pick in this class, but he's been flying under the radar recently.  Did not test well at the combine, so he could be around at 20.  Weak-side LB type in the CFL, maybe even a safety although he's on the slow side for that spot.

Travis Bent Concordia 6' 240- Another guy who came through a regional combine, Bent is a pure middle linebacker and a vicious tackler at the CIS level as you'll see in his highlight pack (video).  He tested well for a traditional linebacker, does he have the potential to pick up pass coverage well enough to play a role like the one Pierre-Luc Labbe played on passing downs, or is he just a special teamer?

Derek Jones Simon Fraser 6'1 195- Played corner for SFU, in what looks to be a defense that plays primarily cover 2 in American (11 man) football.  Highlight pack shows a good mix of Jones playing zone and man, looks to be a physical DB who can make a play on the ball. Maybe a guy who can develop into a field corner? video

Chris Johnson Toronto 5'11 220- Played weak-side LB at Varsity.  His own highlight pack doesn't really flatter him in pass coverage, but he tested very well at the regional combine and he's one of those special teamers who might develop into something types, otherwise known as a 4th or 5th round CFL pick. video

Adam Thibault Laval 6' 205- Arguably the best athlete in this draft. Had to fight for playing time at Laval, and as a result is inexperienced compared to other players in the draft.  He does have a lot of special teams experience though to go with the 4.4 potential.

Derek Wiggan Queen's 6'1 255- Undersized interior DL prospect in the CFL who mostly played end for Queen's, did not test well at the combine and might drop a bit because of it, likely into the 3rd round or beyond.  Looks much more comfortable at end in his highlight pack, comes straight up out of his stance when he's in a 3 point, if he does that against CFL OL who are as athletic and stronger than him he'll end up on his back side. Video

Michael Dadzie Regina 6'1 230- Guy who tested very well in regional and main combine.  Huge motor, played LB in junior, shifted to DE at the U of R.  A guy who will for sure be able to make a roster on special teams and perhaps develop into a situational pass rusher, potentially an interior guy in a few years too if he can get into the 250's and keep his quickness.

Late round special: 

Matt Webster Queen's 5'11 190- Played strong half, dime and safety at Queen's.  Tested very well at the Toronto regional combine.  Someone will take a flyer on him in the 4th-5th-6th round and see what he turns into. video

4. Longsnapper

A position that doesn't get a lot of time in the roster or draft discussion, but it is important.  Can't get that ball back to the punter reliably, and you have major problems.  Currently the Bombers only longsnapper is Ian Wild following the retirement of Chris Cvetkovic.  Carl Fitzgerald was touted as a guy who could longsnap heading into 2013 training camp, but he quickly showed that he can't do it at the CFL level.  Wild is a starting LB too.  Do we want a starting LB longsnapping full-time? There's a relatively high probability of a starting LB leaving a game with an injury too.  We need some cover at that spot.  With the draft being 7 rounds and limited in depth in this transition year for NCAA players and eligibility for the CFL Draft, I think it is a fair possibility that the Bombers could use a 6th or 7th rounder on a guy who is primarily a longsnapper.

Here are a couple guys who fit the bill:

Kyle Tyo Windsor 6'5 240- He's already got the long hair. video

Thomas Miles Manitoba 6'1 220- Made the main combine as a LB, can longsnap too. video

Stay tuned for our mock draft...

Off-Season Roster Analysis: Special Teams and Summary

In part 6 of 6 we'll look at the Blue Bombers special teams heading into the 2014 season and summarize what we've looked at for the entire roster.

Special Teams depth chart as of today (March 15, 2014):

K- HAJRULLAHU 
P- RENAUD
KR- Woods, Ford, Washington, Denmark
PR- Woods, Washington, Denmark, FEOLI-GUDINO

Kickers

The kicking situation is a major concern.  

Mike Renaud survived a challenge by Brett Cameron, Billy Pavlopoulous and Australian Tim Hutchison in 2013's training camp. To this point, the Bombers have not brought in any competition for Renaud at the punter position.

Lirim Hajrullahu is a CFL rookie fresh out of CIS....undrafted at that. Hajrullahu was first-team OUA at both punter and kicker, and second-team All-Canadian as kicker.  

Hajrullahu's kickoff average in 2013 was 61.6 yards and he made 85% of his field goals with two makes over 40 yards.  The kickoff average suggests that Hajrullahu has the raw leg needed to play in the CFL, he needs to prove that he can put the ball on the numbers and between the uprights in the CFL.  For comparison, the Blue Bombers averaged 55 yards per kickoff with Palardy and Deangelis in 2013.  Of course, it may have just been that windy....

The first-team All-Canadian placekicker in 2013 was Johnny Mark out of Calgary, who is eligible for the upcoming 2014 CFL Draft, and was second-team All-Canadian as a placekicker the in 11 and 12 as well. Mark averaged 53 yards on kickoffs and hit 88% of his field goals, five of them more than 40 yards.

Mike Renaud finished just above the CFL league average in both gross and net punting in 2013, which is about where the expectation for him should be.  He's developed into a steady punter who can put the ball where he wants, this is something he struggled with at times in the past (and something we are going to track this season, punt and kickoff placement).  Renaud is not a placekicker...at all.  Watching him attempt converts in a 2010 game when Louis Sakoda was a last minute scratch following the release of Alex Serna was painful. 

It is inconceivable that the Bombers will enter training camp without competition at kicker.  The question is who will the competition be.  Is a guy like Johnny Mark a target for the Blue Bombers in the draft, and will he last until the 3rd round (Bombers pick 2nd and then 20th) in a shallow draft class?  Are the Bombers willing to go with a rookie fresh out of CIS as the placekicker?  Will the Bombers bring in an import who can potentially compete for both the placekicking and punting jobs?

Kick Returners

In terms of kick returning, the Bombers have a good amount of players who can do the jobs on the roster heading into 2014.  Will Ford was All-CFL as a kickoff returner.  Aaron Woods provided ball security, a consistent 20 yards on kickoffs, 10 on punts and was seemingly one shoestring tackle away from busting a lot of big runs on punts and missed field goals.  Demond Washington is a threat each time he hangs onto the ball and Clarence Denmark is a safe and reliable guy who will catch the kickoff or punt.  Washington and Denmark are likely to be key players on defense and offence in 2014, so it is unlikely they will return kicks in all but extreme circumstances.  Ford can't catch punts, so he'll be limited to kickoff returning.

The big question in terms of kick returners will be the health of Aaron Woods.  The foot injury that Woods suffered tends to be one that does not heal easily and can reoccur or affect speed and agility moving forward.  Another question would be whether Woods sees an expanded role for the Blue Bombers in 2014.  Offensive Coordinator Marcel Bellefeuille is the guy who made Corey Holmes and Marcus Thigpen focal points of his offence.  Will he do the same in Winnipeg?  

I expect that the Blue Bombers will add 1 or 2 more guys to compete for a spot primarily as a returner.

Kick Cover

Taking a look at the coverage units, the Bombers lose their top 3 special teams tacklers from 2013 (Green, H Muamba, Stewart) and a key veteran in Pierre-Luc Labbe.  The Bombers cover units in 2013 were pretty good.  They allowed one punt return touchdown and sported good averages with opposing teams averaging 8.2 yards per punt return and 19.3 per kickoff return.   Good benchmarks for returns are 8 yards for a punt and 20 for a kickoff.  Anything under that is very good for a cover unit.

Solid bets to take on a bigger special teams roles in 2014 are Teague Sherman and Phillippe Dubuisson-Lebon. 

Full Depth Chart

Players under contract as of March 15, 2014:

62 (27 non-imports, 35 imports)

13 open roster spots (75 max in off-season, 68 plus non-counters can be brought to training camp)

You'll notice that the Bombers are short one non-import starter based on this depth chart.  I believe they will decide in training camp how the 7th NI spot on the field will be deployed.  There are a few possibilities (in no particular order):

-Neufeld starts at RT.

-A 3rd NI Receiver/tight end spot taken by Feoli-Gudino or Brescacin, or rotated between a couple receivers.

-A 2nd NI spot on defence split between Thomas, Lucas, Newman at WIL/DB, Bucknor at DB.

In my opinion the 2nd NI on defense is most likely at this point.

QB- Willy, Hall, Brohm, Marve

RB- Ford, VOLNY

FB/TE- PONTBRIAND, FITZGERALD

WR boundary- Moore, Sims, Urrutia

SB- WATSON, FEOLI-GUDINO

SB- KOHLERT, BRESCACIN

SB- Denmark

WR field- Kelly, Robinson, RENAUD

LT- January

LG- GREAVES, PALIWODA

C- KOWALCZUK

RG- MORLEY, PENCER, SWISTON

RT- Jones, NEUFELD, Knapp

DE- Vega

DT- Turner, THOMAS

DT- Anderson, LUCAS

DE- McAdoo, Griggs, Peach, Gatling

SAM- Banks, Dunn

MLB- Parker, Hogue

WIL- Wild, Tate, NEWMAN

Weak CB- Randle, Sears

Weak HB- Washington

S- ALEXANDER, MUAMBA

Strong HB- Suber

Strong CB- Markett, BUCKNOR

Rookies- Loper, Leggett

K- HAJRULLAHU

P- RENAUD

KR- Woods, Ford, Washington, Denmark

PR- Woods, Washington, Denmark, FEOLI-GUDINO

Special Teamers- STEPHAN, SHERMAN, WEST, DUBUSSION-LEBON